February 21st, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
17-Feb-12 |
Feb-10-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,361.23 |
1,342.64 |
1.38% |
8.24% |
1.36% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,949.87 |
12,801.23 |
1.16% |
5.99% |
4.51% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,951.78 |
2,903.88 |
1.65% |
13.31% |
4.16% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,331.22 |
14,119.98 |
1.50% |
9.32% |
0.97% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,571.27 |
1,524.97 |
3.04% |
11.24% |
-10.67% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.00% |
1.98% |
1.01% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.14% |
3.14% |
0.00% |
NA |
NA |
In a last minute deal, European Finance Ministers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to give Greece another round of bailout loans aimed at avoiding what would have likely been a default in March. The bailout total is about $170 billion, a heavy price to pay to bail out a country of less than 12 million people, some of whom pay their taxes. To be sure, the tab being paid on the streets of Greece is large as well. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: austerity, Greece, Kane Cotton
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February 14th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
10-Feb-12 |
Feb-3-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,342.64 |
1,344.90 |
-0.17% |
6.76% |
1.01% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,801.23 |
12,862.23 |
-0.47% |
4.78% |
4.30% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,903.88 |
2,905.66 |
-0.06% |
11.47% |
3.36% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,119.98 |
14,167.71 |
-0.34% |
7.71% |
0.54% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,524.97 |
1,529.46 |
-0.29% |
7.96% |
-11.63% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.98% |
1.92% |
3.13% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.14% |
3.12% |
0.64% |
NA |
NA |
Many professional money managers were holding their breath over the weekend, wondering whether or not Greek Parliament would vote in the austerity package that Euro Zone leaders were demanding as part of yet another tranche of bailout aid. Failure to pass the austerity cuts would almost guarantee no bailout and a disorderly default, but the passage of the cuts only buys time. In the end, the vote passed, but, as with past austerity votes, it did not come without consequences.
Think for a minute about what Greek politicians were faced with. They were being asked to agree to thousands of cuts to the public sector work force, a 20% cut in the minimum wage, reduced spending to social programs (1 in 5 civil service jobs will be cut), higher taxes and labor law reforms that would make it easier to fire workers. By the way, Greek Parliament, which is led by Socialists, was asked to do this shortly before scheduled elections. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Euro zone, Greece Austerity, Kane Cotton
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February 6th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
3-Feb-12 |
27-Jan-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,344.90 |
1,316.33 |
2.17% |
6.94% |
2.60% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,862.23 |
12,660.46 |
1.59% |
5.28% |
6.37% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,905.66 |
2,816.55 |
3.16% |
11.54% |
4.92% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,167.71 |
13,819.49 |
2.52% |
8.07% |
2.53% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,529.46 |
1,495.59 |
2.26% |
8.28% |
-11.23% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.92% |
1.89% |
1.59% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.12% |
3.06% |
1.96% |
NA |
NA |
Most investors are fairly familiar with the major stock indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average (i.e., The Dow), the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The DOW is probably the most familiar to most readers, but many market watchers watch the other indexes as well and compare their performance against each other. This is called inter-market analysis. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Kane Cotton, NASDAQ, unemployment
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January 31st, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
27-Jan-12 |
20-Jan-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,316.33 |
1,315.38 |
0.07% |
4.67% |
3.13% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,660.46 |
12,720.48 |
-0.47% |
3.63% |
7.08% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,816.55 |
2,786.70 |
1.07% |
8.11% |
4.83% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,819.49 |
13,760.86 |
0.43% |
5.42% |
2.74% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,495.59 |
1,472.05 |
1.60% |
5.88% |
-12.83% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.89% |
2.02% |
-6.44% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.06% |
3.10% |
-1.29% |
NA |
NA |
By the end of last week, about 40% of S&P 500 companies had reported earnings for the quarter, and results continue to be mixed. As we mentioned in last week’s missive, this is a relatively new trend. After all, investors had become used to the ease with which most companies had been able to beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: apple, financial stocks, Kane Cotton
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January 23rd, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
20-Jan-12 |
13-Jan-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,315.38 |
1,289.09 |
2.04% |
4.59% |
2.50% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,720.48 |
12,422.06 |
2.40% |
4.12% |
7.15% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,786.70 |
2,710.67 |
2.80% |
6.97% |
3.61% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,760.86 |
13,472.37 |
2.14% |
4.97% |
1.94% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,472.05 |
1,417.89 |
3.82% |
4.21% |
-11.97% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.02% |
1.96% |
3.06% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.10% |
3.02% |
2.65% |
NA |
NA |
Earnings season was in high gear last week, and the results were good enough to keep the rally going. All major domestic stock indices were up last week, and international stocks (finally) did even better. Treasuries lost ground. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: cfa, Kane Cotton, performance, stocks
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January 17th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
13-Jan-12 |
6-Jan-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,289.09 |
1,277.81 |
0.88% |
2.50% |
-0.32% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,422.06 |
12,359.92 |
0.50% |
1.67% |
5.38% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,710.67 |
2,674.22 |
1.36% |
4.05% |
-1.62% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,472.37 |
13,315.50 |
1.18% |
2.77% |
-1.47% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,417.89 |
1,406.71 |
0.79% |
0.38% |
-16.05% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.96% |
1.96% |
0.00% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.02% |
3.01% |
0.33% |
NA |
NA |
Earnings season has begun to heat up with quite a few financial firms reporting last week. How did they fare? Not great. JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) all reported earnings in the last week, and year-over-year, earnings were up down 14%, up 20% and down 11%, respectively. There was a high degree of difference between the earnings power of the three firms.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: financial sector, JP Morgan Chase, Kane Cotton, Wells Fargo
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January 9th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
6-Jan-12 |
30-Dec-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,277.81 |
1,257.60 |
1.61% |
1.61% |
0.50% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,359.92 |
12,217.56 |
1.17% |
1.17% |
5.87% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,674.22 |
2,605.15 |
2.65% |
2.65% |
-1.07% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,315.50 |
13,109.55 |
1.57% |
1.57% |
-0.84% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,406.71 |
1,412.55 |
-0.41% |
-0.41% |
-14.68% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.96% |
2.00% |
-2.00% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.01% |
3.03% |
-0.66% |
NA |
NA |
Last week kicked off a decent start to 2012, with stocks rising broadly in the U.S. While it’s awfully early to get too excited over just one week, it was a week of gains, and we’ll take it. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Kane Cotton, labor department, unemployment
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January 3rd, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
30-Dec-11 |
23-Dec-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,257.60 |
1,265.33 |
-0.61% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,217.56 |
12,294.00 |
-0.62% |
5.53% |
5.53% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,605.15 |
2,618.64 |
-0.52% |
-1.80% |
-1.80% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,109.55 |
13,197.25 |
-0.66% |
-1.36% |
-1.36% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,412.55 |
1,401.60 |
0.78% |
-14.82% |
-14.82% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.00% |
2.02% |
-0.99% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.03% |
3.05% |
-0.66% |
NA |
NA |
1,257 was the closing value for the S&P 500 on Friday, the last trading day of 2011. 1,257 was also the closing value for the S&P 500 exactly a year prior, on December 31, 2010. Statistically speaking, the odds of that happening are very, very low. Nonetheless, it happened. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: american economy, cfa, European Sovereign Debt, Kane Cotton, S&P 500
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December 27th, 2011
By Kane Cotton
| |
23-Dec-11 |
16-Dec-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,265.33 |
1,219.66 |
3.74% |
0.61% |
0.68% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,294.00 |
11,866.39 |
3.60% |
6.19% |
6.23% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,618.64 |
2,555.33 |
2.48% |
-1.29% |
-1.76% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,197.25 |
12,736.87 |
3.61% |
-0.70% |
-0.64% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,401.60 |
1,370.78 |
2.25% |
-15.48% |
-14.83% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.02% |
2.01% |
0.50% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.05% |
3.05% |
0.00% |
NA |
NA |
Light trading volumes are a regular occurrence during Holiday weeks on the stock exchanges. Last week was no exception, and we suspect that this week will be the same. Light volume can, and sometimes does, result in wide swings in prices. Last week saw domestic stock indices gain between two and four percent. Historically, weekly changes of that magnitude might have stood out. In 2011, moves like that seem like just more of the same. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: domestic stock indices, Kane Cotton, long-term credit
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December 19th, 2011
By Kane Cotton
| |
16-Dec-11 |
9-Dec-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,219.66 |
1,255.19 |
-2.83% |
-3.02% |
-1.95% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
11,866.39 |
12,184.26 |
-2.61% |
2.50% |
3.26% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,555.33 |
2,646.85 |
-3.46% |
-3.68% |
-3.32% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
12,736.87 |
13,118.90 |
-2.91% |
-4.16% |
-3.09% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,370.78 |
1,428.19 |
-4.02% |
-17.34% |
-15.88% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.01% |
2.06% |
-2.43% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.05% |
3.11% |
-1.93% |
NA |
NA |
“Where do you think you’re going? Nobody’s leaving. Nobody’s walking out on this fun, old-fashioned family Christmas. Nooo no. We’re all in this together. This is a full blown, four-alarm holiday emergency here. We’re going to press on, and we’re gonna have the hap-hap-happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap danced with Danny Kaye!!”
-Clark Griswold, National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation (1989)
The quote from above comes about half way into the chaotic family Christmas tale when extended family members try to call it quits and go home since nothing seems to have gone right at their family gathering. After troubling experiences with an oversized Christmas tree with a squirrel in it, an uninvited and poor-mannered cousin, an unruly Rottweiler and fights with neighbors and Christmas light strands, the relatives have had enough and want to leave. Ever the idealist, though, Clark won’t let them. In a way, it kind of reminds me of Europe. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: european debt problems, Kane Cotton
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